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ETFs in Focus as Wall Street 2025 Stock Forecasts Hit New Heights
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The S&P 500 was up about 24% in 2023 and has similarly gained 27.8% this year. Cooling inflation, a less-hawkish Fed, an AI boom, a tech rally and an improvement in corporate earnings have led the key Wall Street stock index to log more than 20% gain in back-to-back years. But will the rally continue in 2025?
The Wall Street analysts have mixed views on this, with some predicting more muted returns for 2025, while brokerage houses like Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) are more bullish in their outlook. This puts focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) , Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO - Free Report) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA - Free Report) . While the S&P 500-based ETFs gained more than 25% this year, the ETF DIA is up 18.8%.
Wells Fargo Sets S&P 500 Target at 7,007
Wells Fargo equity strategist Christopher Harvey and his team issued a bold 2025 year-end target of 7,007 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). This forecast marks the highest among Wall Street strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance, predicting a potential rise of over 26% next year. The target narrowly surpasses Deutsche Bank and Yardeni Research, both projecting the index to close 2025 at 7,000.
Favorable Macro Environment Expected
Harvey anticipates that the macro environment under the Trump administration, combined with a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, will create favorable conditions for stocks. Corporate margins expansion, stronger economic growth and potential for increased merger and acquisition activities will likely drive market growth next year.
Continued Improvement in Profitability Across Businesses
Through Nov. 22nd, we have seen Q3 results from 476 S&P 500 members, or 92.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 476 companies that have reported are up 8.1% from the same period last year on 5.5% higher revenues, with 73.7% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 61.8% beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these 476 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 51.1%.
Stronger Economic Growth
The U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2024. On a year-end basis, S&P Global expects growth to come in at 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in fourth-quarter 2023.
Apart from continued weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors, most recent activity indicators suggest economic growth momentum continues to run slightly above trend, though it has moderated since the fourth quarter of last year.
Upbeat Year Ahead for Mergers and Acquisitions?
The merger & acquisition (M&A) market has experienced significant volatility, from the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020 to a remarkable recovery in 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2023. Third-quarter 2024 saw a slight increase in global M&A deal notifications, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth (read: Upbeat Year Ahead for Mergers and Acquisitions? ETFs to Consider).
Even though the increase in the M&A activity was modest, the positive shift is notable, given the downward trend in transactions since 2022, when the Fed took up a hawkish approach. Easing financial market conditions, fueled by the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising expectations of further rate reductions and moderating inflation, will play a key role in driving the M&A market.
Opportunities Beyond Big Tech
Harvey sees opportunities beyond the dominant tech stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven." He predicts the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, which gives equal importance to all components, will perform well in 2025. This indicates a broadening rally that extends to the other 493 members of the index.
Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP - Free Report) deserves a closer look in this regard. Also, investors can track iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT - Free Report) for likely gains. The ETFs RSP and ITOT have added 18% and 27.6%, respectively, this year.
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ETFs in Focus as Wall Street 2025 Stock Forecasts Hit New Heights
The S&P 500 was up about 24% in 2023 and has similarly gained 27.8% this year. Cooling inflation, a less-hawkish Fed, an AI boom, a tech rally and an improvement in corporate earnings have led the key Wall Street stock index to log more than 20% gain in back-to-back years. But will the rally continue in 2025?
The Wall Street analysts have mixed views on this, with some predicting more muted returns for 2025, while brokerage houses like Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) are more bullish in their outlook. This puts focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) , Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO - Free Report) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA - Free Report) . While the S&P 500-based ETFs gained more than 25% this year, the ETF DIA is up 18.8%.
Wells Fargo Sets S&P 500 Target at 7,007
Wells Fargo equity strategist Christopher Harvey and his team issued a bold 2025 year-end target of 7,007 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). This forecast marks the highest among Wall Street strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance, predicting a potential rise of over 26% next year. The target narrowly surpasses Deutsche Bank and Yardeni Research, both projecting the index to close 2025 at 7,000.
Favorable Macro Environment Expected
Harvey anticipates that the macro environment under the Trump administration, combined with a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, will create favorable conditions for stocks. Corporate margins expansion, stronger economic growth and potential for increased merger and acquisition activities will likely drive market growth next year.
Continued Improvement in Profitability Across Businesses
Through Nov. 22nd, we have seen Q3 results from 476 S&P 500 members, or 92.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 476 companies that have reported are up 8.1% from the same period last year on 5.5% higher revenues, with 73.7% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 61.8% beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these 476 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 51.1%.
Stronger Economic Growth
The U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2024. On a year-end basis, S&P Global expects growth to come in at 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in fourth-quarter 2023.
Apart from continued weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors, most recent activity indicators suggest economic growth momentum continues to run slightly above trend, though it has moderated since the fourth quarter of last year.
Upbeat Year Ahead for Mergers and Acquisitions?
The merger & acquisition (M&A) market has experienced significant volatility, from the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020 to a remarkable recovery in 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2023. Third-quarter 2024 saw a slight increase in global M&A deal notifications, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth (read: Upbeat Year Ahead for Mergers and Acquisitions? ETFs to Consider).
Even though the increase in the M&A activity was modest, the positive shift is notable, given the downward trend in transactions since 2022, when the Fed took up a hawkish approach. Easing financial market conditions, fueled by the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising expectations of further rate reductions and moderating inflation, will play a key role in driving the M&A market.
Opportunities Beyond Big Tech
Harvey sees opportunities beyond the dominant tech stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven." He predicts the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, which gives equal importance to all components, will perform well in 2025. This indicates a broadening rally that extends to the other 493 members of the index.
Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP - Free Report) deserves a closer look in this regard. Also, investors can track iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT - Free Report) for likely gains. The ETFs RSP and ITOT have added 18% and 27.6%, respectively, this year.